Bitcoin [BTC] price turned bullish again on Monday, after fairly negative weekend. However, it’s failure to break above $9000 with a reversal candle on short term suggests that indecision still lingers in the market.
The volume of the buying action is also on the lower side. On the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is acting as resistance at the moment. The bottom of the range is around $8421.
Bullish Accumulation, but New Lows Before that?
The overall inclination of the market has been bullish since the beginning of the year. The halving is acting as the lead factor pushing the momentum higher. Yesterday, Bitcoin’s Hash Rate recorded a new All-Time High indicating network strength and possible miner accumulation before the drop.
Prominent trade analyst, TraderXO, however, feels that BTC might see long-term swing lows before the moonshot. He tweeted,
$BTC I still believe price is in one large accumulation phase / range hence why I wasn’t calling moonshot in Feb. If we are dropping lower then its a matter of schematic 1 or 2, until invalidated. Absolutely shall be buying 6s & 7s
The diminishing volume across Phase B falls in line with the profile of a Wyckoff Pattern. Further extrapolation suggests that we could see a high volume spring or a shake-out which will be follow a series of tests in the lower range around $6000-$7000 (the lows were $642X). The timelines of the tests of support could likely fall around halving.
Nevertheless, a break out of the resistance around $9200-$9500 could invalidate the entire accumulation as the market turns bullish earlier. Halving and increasing hash rates could be one factor that could provide the break-out.
Moreover, currently, the price is testing a mid-line of the range on long-term charts for support. The recent reversal of Bitcoin’s price from the high around the Xi-pump has formed a parallel range of support and resistance at $6900 and $10,500 respectively. The mid of the range is around $8700.
The price of Bitcoin at 3: 00 hours UTC on 3rd March 2020 is $8879.